EDGELINE INSIGHTS • FANTASY FOOTBALL • DATA ANALYSIS

Target depth vs. red-zone value: which WRs got the best opportunities in 2025?

A target 30 yards downfield and a target from the five-yard line can both be extremely valuable — but for completely different reasons. We analyzed 83 NFL wide receivers to separate those two types of opportunity.

NFL EdgeLine • August 25, 2026 • Source: nflverse play-by-play data
NFL EdgeLine analysis showing 2025 Target Depth Score leaders, Red Zone Score leaders, and receivers who ranked strongly in both.

Target Depth Score and Red Zone Score identify two different types of high-value receiving opportunity. TDS + RZS is shown only as a sorting aid.

THE IDEA

A target isn't just a target.

Fantasy analysis often starts with volume: targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. Those numbers matter, but they don't tell us what kind of targets a receiver was getting.

A receiver repeatedly targeted 20 or 30 yards downfield has access to explosive-play upside. Another receiver may operate closer to the line of scrimmage but become a featured option near the goal line. A smaller group receives meaningful opportunities in both areas.

To separate those roles, NFL EdgeLine created two percentile-based measures using 2025 play-by-play data: Target Depth Score (TDS) and Red Zone Score (RZS).

The sample includes 83 wide receivers with at least 50 targets. Both scores run from 0 to 100 relative to that qualifying WR population. They are not talent grades and they are not fantasy point projections.

METRIC 01

Target Depth Score (TDS)

TDS measures how strongly a receiver's usage leaned toward downfield opportunities. We use both average depth of target and the percentage of targets that traveled at least 20 air yards so that raw target volume does not automatically dominate the ranking.

TDS FORMULA
60% aDOT percentile 40% 20+ air-yard target-rate percentile

2025 Target Depth Leaders

WRTDSaDOT20+ TgtDeep Tgt Rate
Christian Watson99.317.212032.3%
Alec Pierce98.518.962529.8%
Kayshon Boutte98.016.882131.8%
Rome Odunze95.114.402928.2%
Adonai Mitchell94.414.891925.7%

Christian Watson finished with the highest TDS in the sample at 99.3. His average target traveled 17.21 yards through the air, and 20 of his 62 targets traveled at least 20 air yards.

Alec Pierce was even more extreme by raw aDOT at 18.96 yards, while Rome Odunze led this top-five group with 29 total deep targets.

HOW TO READ IT

A high TDS does not mean “better receiver.” It means the receiver's target portfolio was unusually vertical and carried more explosive-play potential.

METRIC 02

Red Zone Score (RZS)

RZS measures a receiver's combination of scoring-area opportunity and what he did with those chances. Opportunity receives most of the weight because touchdowns can be volatile, but efficiency still matters.

RZS FORMULA
35% red-zone target-rate percentile 30% inside-the-10 target-rate percentile 20% RZ target-to-TD conversion percentile 15% RZ catch-rate percentile

That makes RZS 65% opportunity and 35% efficiency. The distinction is intentional: we want to reward players whose offenses repeatedly looked their way near the goal line without simply sorting the league by touchdown totals.

2025 Red-Zone Leaders

WRRZSRZ TgtInside 10RZ TDRZ TD%
Davante Adams85.334241338.2%
Jalen Nailor83.1137430.8%
Amon-Ra St. Brown82.335211028.6%
Jauan Jennings81.82312730.4%
Keon Coleman81.51410428.6%

Davante Adams finished first with an 85.3 RZS after receiving 34 red-zone targets, including 24 from inside the 10, and converting 13 red-zone touchdowns.

Amon-Ra St. Brown actually saw one more total red-zone target than Adams, while Jalen Nailor and Keon Coleman demonstrate why rates matter: their overall target volume was much lower, but a large share of their opportunities arrived in scoring territory.

THE OVERLAP

Best of both worlds.

The most interesting profiles are the receivers who had meaningful access to both forms of high-value opportunity: downfield targets capable of generating explosive plays and red-zone targets capable of generating touchdowns.

For this view, we first require a receiver to score at least 60 in both TDS and RZS, then sort that group by TDS + RZS. The combined number is not a third EdgeLine metric; it simply gives us a consistent way to order players who cleared both thresholds.

WRTDSRZSTDS + RZSDeep TgtRZ TgtInside 10
Davante Adams77.685.3162.9283424
Christian Watson99.363.3162.62075
Tee Higgins88.070.6158.625168
Troy Franklin76.675.7152.3242111
Marvin Harrison Jr.78.572.5151.016116

Davante Adams has the most complete profile in the group: a 77.6 TDS paired with the sample's top 85.3 RZS. He received 28 deep targets and 34 red-zone targets, including 24 inside the 10.

Christian Watson gets to nearly the same combined total in a very different way. His 99.3 TDS is the most extreme downfield profile in the sample, while his 63.3 RZS is solid rather than elite.

Tee Higgins may be the most balanced fantasy profile of the group at 88.0 TDS and 70.6 RZS. Troy Franklin is the surprise, while Marvin Harrison Jr. also lands comfortably above 70 in both metrics.

READING THE GRAPH

What the visual is — and isn't — telling us.

The left side of the graphic ranks the league's most vertical target profiles. The right side ranks the strongest combinations of red-zone opportunity and efficiency. The final section surfaces players who scored strongly in both.

That does not mean every great fantasy receiver must appear near the top of both metrics. A player can create enormous fantasy value through volume, yards after the catch, intermediate targets or other roles that TDS and RZS are not designed to measure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a good example. His TDS was only 7.8, but his 82.3 RZS was among the league's best. The point is not that his opportunity was poor — it is that his most valuable opportunities came from a very different part of the field than Christian Watson's.

THE FANTASY USE

TDS and RZS are best used as role descriptors. They help explain where a receiver's upside came from and which players had access to multiple kinds of high-value opportunity.

FULL DATA

Complete 2025 WR results

All 83 qualifying wide receivers are shown below. The default ranking is sorted by TDS + RZS from highest to lowest.

TDS + RZS is not a separate NFL EdgeLine score. A highly unbalanced player can still rank well in that simple sum, so the individual TDS and RZS columns should be evaluated separately.

What each column means:
  • Rank — Overall position when the table is initially sorted by TDS + RZS.
  • WR — Wide receiver.
  • TDS — Target Depth Score (0–100), measuring downfield usage based on aDOT and the rate of 20+ air-yard targets.
  • RZS — Red Zone Score (0–100), combining red-zone opportunity, inside-the-10 usage, and red-zone efficiency.
  • TDS + RZS — Simple sum of the two scores for sorting and comparison; not a separate EdgeLine metric.
  • Tgt — Total targets.
  • aDOT — Average depth of target, in air yards.
  • Deep — Targets traveling 20+ air yards.
  • RZ — Targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
  • I10 — Targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
  • RZ TD — Touchdowns scored on red-zone targets.

↕ Click any column heading to sort the table. Click it again to reverse the order.

↕ Click any column heading to sort the table. Click it again to reverse the order.

Rank WR TDS RZS TDS + RZS Tgt aDOT Deep RZ I10 RZ TD
1 Davante Adams 77.6 85.3 162.9 139 13.18 28 34 24 13
2 Christian Watson 99.3 63.3 162.6 62 17.21 20 7 5 3
3 Tee Higgins 88.0 70.6 158.6 99 13.41 25 16 8 4
4 Troy Franklin 76.6 75.7 152.3 107 12.70 24 21 11 4
5 Marvin Harrison Jr. 78.5 72.5 151.0 74 12.96 16 11 6 4
6 R.Doubs 67.8 81.0 148.8 97 12.48 18 20 11 6
7 J.Addison 90.2 57.8 148.0 79 13.71 22 13 5 3
8 Jalen Nailor 64.8 83.1 147.9 54 12.38 10 13 7 4
9 M.Evans 82.2 65.7 147.9 62 13.29 14 9 5 3
10 P.Washington 74.0 69.8 143.8 109 12.46 25 19 7 5
11 Alec Pierce 98.5 42.4 140.9 84 18.96 25 9 4 4
12 Rome Odunze 95.1 43.7 138.8 103 14.40 29 14 6 3
13 Keon Coleman 55.6 81.5 137.1 66 11.56 12 14 10 4
14 Q.Johnston 63.7 72.1 135.8 90 11.60 20 15 7 4
15 T.McLaurin 87.8 44.8 132.6 60 13.98 14 8 3 2
16 Kayshon Boutte 98.0 34.4 132.4 66 16.88 21 5 2 2
17 M.Hollins 87.8 43.0 130.8 75 14.20 17 6 4 2
18 M.Brown 47.8 80.3 128.1 74 11.30 12 10 8 5
19 E.Ayomanor 72.9 54.5 127.4 89 12.65 18 8 6 4
20 D.Slayton 81.0 43.8 124.8 65 13.38 14 8 7 0
21 B.Thomas 91.5 33.0 124.5 93 14.35 23 8 6 2
22 D.Moore 63.9 59.4 123.3 100 11.24 24 13 7 4
23 J.Waddle 71.5 48.4 119.9 100 13.06 18 11 5 3
24 N.Collins 62.2 54.3 116.5 128 12.50 22 19 10 3
25 Jauan Jennings 34.1 81.8 115.9 101 10.27 13 23 12 7
26 Adonai Mitchell 94.4 19.9 114.3 74 14.89 19 8 2 1
27 D.Mooney 90.5 22.5 113.0 72 14.15 18 8 3 0
28 C.Sutton 58.8 53.5 112.3 139 12.28 24 21 9 5
29 D.London 41.7 70.1 111.8 113 10.90 17 16 9 7
30 J.Higgins 64.3 47.5 111.8 83 12.46 15 9 4 4
31 G.Pickens 46.3 62.4 108.7 138 11.29 22 24 11 4
32 X.Worthy 80.7 24.6 105.3 73 12.93 17 6 2 1
33 C.Lamb 58.5 46.3 104.8 117 11.99 21 17 7 2
34 M.Wilson 63.9 40.8 104.7 67 12.92 11 11 1 3
35 D.Metcalf 49.5 53.6 103.1 104 10.59 19 13 7 3
36 R.Shaheed 80.2 21.5 101.7 102 12.90 24 10 2 1
37 T.McMillan 55.9 45.2 101.1 129 11.69 23 15 6 4
38 R.Pearsall 92.4 8.5 100.9 55 13.84 17 4 2 0
39 J.Coker 37.1 63.2 100.3 57 10.51 8 7 6 2
40 A.Brown 63.9 36.1 100.0 128 12.17 25 13 5 3
41 C.Austin 60.5 37.0 97.5 61 11.67 12 4 1 2
42 T.Tucker 47.6 48.5 96.1 92 10.16 18 10 5 3
43 E.Egbuka 69.1 25.2 94.3 128 12.38 27 15 5 2
44 Mi.Wilson 50.7 43.1 93.8 60 10.82 11 6 4 1
45 C.Dike 21.7 70.8 92.5 74 8.09 11 14 5 3
46 C.Olave 62.4 30.1 92.5 156 11.80 31 15 4 5
47 J.Smith-Njigba 41.0 50.9 91.9 189 11.08 28 23 8 8
48 D.Douglas 35.6 55.7 91.3 58 9.16 10 7 4 2
49 Amon-Ra St. Brown 7.8 82.3 90.1 172 8.08 8 35 21 10
50 J.Williams 72.7 15.8 88.5 102 12.64 21 9 4 1
51 V.Jefferson 56.3 31.5 87.8 52 11.98 9 3 1 1
52 R.Flournoy 17.6 69.0 86.6 56 8.32 5 7 5 3
53 M.Washington 5.1 81.0 86.1 65 5.18 5 11 7 3
54 P.Nacua 38.5 45.4 83.9 208 10.10 35 21 10 6
55 R.Rice 3.7 80.1 83.8 79 4.33 6 19 15 4
56 C.Kirk 12.4 70.8 83.2 68 7.55 7 10 8 3
57 M.Pittman 14.6 67.0 81.6 114 8.17 9 18 10 5
58 L.McConkey 30.0 50.0 80.0 110 9.95 15 15 6 4
59 S.Diggs 20.7 59.2 79.9 122 8.20 15 13 8 5
60 J.Jefferson 35.0 44.0 79.0 142 10.20 21 19 11 2
61 A.Iosivas 39.3 39.6 78.9 58 10.45 9 7 4 1
62 J.Downs 10.7 66.5 77.2 88 7.49 8 15 5 4
63 O.Zaccheaus 9.0 67.9 76.9 70 7.38 6 14 5 3
64 X.Legette 28.3 46.9 75.2 68 9.96 8 13 3 2
65 D.Smith 46.1 28.9 75.0 125 11.23 21 13 4 2
66 Z.Flowers 43.3 30.2 73.5 119 10.20 21 12 6 1
67 D.Samuel 3.2 69.1 72.3 100 5.32 6 13 8 4
68 X.Hutchinson 28.3 43.7 72.0 74 10.00 8 8 4 2
69 C.Godwin 6.6 64.8 71.4 52 7.08 4 8 6 2
70 J.Chase 22.4 47.1 69.5 185 8.49 20 22 8 7
71 M.Mims 54.6 14.3 68.9 65 9.25 17 3 1 0
72 S.Shepard 21.5 46.8 68.3 54 8.55 5 8 3 1
73 P.Bryant 11.2 57.0 68.2 53 8.13 4 8 4 0
74 K.Allen 20.2 46.1 66.3 130 8.34 14 17 8 4
75 C.Kupp 11.5 54.2 65.7 94 7.78 8 16 5 3
76 J.Jeudy 55.9 8.8 64.7 106 12.15 18 9 3 0
77 J.Meyers 18.3 42.4 60.7 114 9.24 8 16 6 3
78 K.Shakir 0.0 59.6 59.6 118 3.40 5 20 7 2
79 G.Wilson 26.6 29.6 56.2 60 9.07 8 5 2 2
80 K.Bourne 40.2 8.4 48.6 55 11.25 7 2 1 0
81 W.Robinson 27.3 17.3 44.6 141 8.48 21 14 6 1
82 L.Burden 25.8 15.2 41.0 74 8.15 12 7 1 0
83 T.Lockett 7.8 30.3 38.1 56 7.75 4 3 3 1
Methodology: 2025 regular-season nflverse play-by-play data. Sample restricted to wide receivers with at least 50 targets. Component values are percentile-ranked against the qualifying WR sample.

TDS: 60% aDOT percentile + 40% 20+ air-yard target-rate percentile.

RZS: 35% red-zone target-rate percentile + 30% inside-the-10 target-rate percentile + 20% red-zone target-to-TD conversion percentile + 15% red-zone catch-rate percentile.

These metrics describe 2025 usage and efficiency; they are not 2026 fantasy-point projections.
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